This Week In Box Office History: Super Bowl or Super Sniper Weekend?

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This Week in Box Office History

The Super Bowl is this weekend (I forget which number, they’re all starting to resemble a Men’s Big and Tall sizing chart now with all those X’s and XL’s.)  Usually that means box office suicide…but Bradley Cooper don’t give it no never mind.  American Sniper unleashed another volley of high caliber earnings at the box office this weekend, and doesn’t appear to be running out ammo any time soon. I swear, these sniper puns just write themselves…

But hey, at least we get to see a new trailer for Arnold's flabby new film during the Super Bowl!
But hey, at least we get to see a new trailer for Arnold’s flabby new film during the Super Bowl!
Deflated footballs!?  I haven't got time for that shit, there's money to make!
Deflated footballs!? I haven’t got time for that shit, there’s money to make!

The Week That Was:  Actual/Predicted

1.  American Sniper (64 Million)/ American Sniper (45 Million)

2.  The Boy Next Door (14 Million)/ The Boy Next Door (17 Million)

3.  Paddington (12 Million)/  The Wedding Ringer (13 Million)

American Sniper just continues to beat the odds.  It continues to add between 3 to 5 million dollars in tickets a day.  It’s miniscule drop of about 25% from last week is mind blowing (see, great puns here people.)  At this rate is being talked about that Clint Eastwood’s little darling war movie is going to out earn Marvel’s super heroes and even knock The Hunger Games Mockingjay off of it’s number one earning spot for 2014.  Not bad for a film that came out with less than a week left in the year.  Can I take a moment to gripe about that?  Both Sniper and Mockingjay will probably pass Guardians of the Galaxy, despite making a large chunk of their money in 2015.  That’s a little crap.  Expect Star Wars 7 to pull the same accounting shell game next year too, totally f-ing up my predictions.  Thanks Hollywood!

EVERYONE in church on Super Bowl Sunday has this look on their face.  EVERYONE.
Everyone in church on Super Bowl Sunday has this look on their face. EVERYONE.

The Week That Will Be:  Predictions

3.  Black and White  (7 Million)

2.  Project Almanac  (10 Million)

1.  American Sniper (35 Million)

First place is in no doubt, but third place could be anyone’s game.  I think Costner and his racially charged material (though being played as family friendly in its promotions) may be the mix of serious and sweet that could benefit from a weekend that is likely going to be missing Hollywood’s largest demographic, white men 19-35 years old.  J-Lo’s Boy Next Door could make third, though, if she manages a graceful decline from last weeks opening…but thrillers generally sink or swim based on their first week.  Paddington is kid friendly, and that may be enough to grab third.  At this point I’m just plugging the new film, which has the intangibles to buck the odds.

And…

The Super Bowl:  New England Patriots 24, Seattle Seahawks 20.   A squeaker, but the Pats get the job done and cement that legacy by one extra trip to the end zone.

Random Thoughts

Many films besides American Sniper had very small decreases this week, which is a bit of an anomaly.  One notable bounce factor had to be Oscar nomination status.  Many films have re-released to a wider market based on the strong surge from getting an Academy nod.  Selma saw a very small decrease at about 30%, and Birdman, The Theory of Everything, and Whiplash all saw large increases in totals over last weekend.  Many of those films were essentially done their big screen careers, but now have fresh life in them.

Information courtesy of Box Office Mojo.  Used with permission.

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